In reply refer to No.
Op-16
                     NAVY DEPARTMENT 
OFFICE OF THE CHIEF OF NAVAL OPERATIONS
         OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE
                         WASHINGTON
 
                                                     24 April 1940
Dear Dan:
              
     The word that a memorandum for the President as our
estimate of the present situation did not reach  John Magruder,  and
me until after working hours yesterday, so to catch this morning's
air mail pouch, departing at ten, John is preparing his memormudum,
Bode is preparing ours, and I am writing this general comment, on
the Norwegian situation.
 
       To me there seems no indication of an early decision being
arrived at, and whether or not the Allies will ever succeed in
driving the Germans out of the 0slo region is highly problematical.
The Germans, as is well knowm, made a surprise and simultaneous 
invasion of the principal Norwegian ports in a manner doing credit
to their military efficiency. There are indications, however, that
their losses of transports incident to this operation were so
great that their landing forces were none too adequate. It is
significant that they have not been able to push out more than
about fifty miles from Oslo, nor that far from any other port,
that they have not been able to link up between any two ports,
and that they have not been able to take the fortress of Hegre,
east of Trondheim. The difficult terrain, scarce and sloppy fly
-ing fields, and interrupted communications (destroyed railroad
bridges, etc.), are obstacles that will slow down both sides, 
but, in my opinion, favor the last comer.
 
 
      The Allies landed with commendable despatch, and have
promptly effected contact with the Norwegians, including the area
just north of Oslo, which I consider creditable.
 
      I believe the effect on neutrals made by the sudden
and secret German invasion of Norway must, to a considerable
extent, be cancelled by the prompt allied counter-action.
Especially should that be so when one compares the price already
paid to accomplish the situation in Norway as it now is.