AS/G2
JCH / amf
 
December 24, 1941
 
An Estimate of possible Axis .move into North  and  Northwest Africa.
 
        Should the Axis move into West and Northwest Africa their aircraft will form the advance
element. Due to the availability of numerous bases and line.s of communication through Spain,
Sicily and North Africa this move will not occasion any serious difficulty for the Axis. Air Force
requirements would not be great and could be furnished by the 2nd Air Fleet,  now reported to be
based in Italy,  augmented by whatever Focke-Wolfe bombers the Axis decided to spare from
France. (The above Air Fleet is estimated to comprise 400 aircraft, mostly bombers, and
according to reliable information its strength will be increased shortly,  probably with fighters. Its
strength then will probably be between 700-800 aircraft.) The movement through two zones,  (1)
Sicily and (2) Spain, would occur simultaneously.
 
        The force from Sicily of approximately 350 aircraft would occupy and operate from bases in
Tunisia and Algeria thereby denying the Western Meditarranean to Allied forces. Complete
occupation could be off acted in two days and within two weeks effective operations could be
conducted. It has repeatedly been demonstrated that surface craft cannot operate within range of
determined attack by land based aircraft without aerial superiority. This cannot be secured by the
British at this time. Obviously Gibralter would be untenable as a Naval Base. In consequence the
Axis would have a direct surface supply route to all ports in this theatre  hampered only by
sporadic air and submarine attacks.
 
The force from Spain of approximately 100 long range bombers, 200 single engine fighters and
100 twin engine fighters,  would occupy consecutively the bases from Tangier to Dakar.
This would require about one week,  the distance involved being almost 1700 miles by air. Within
another week effective operatiens could be conducted. Heavy bombers will probably be based at
Dakar, Villa Cisneros, Cap Juby and Tangier,  with single engine fighters occupying the adjacent
auxiliary fields. Twin engine fighters would occupy the Canary and Cape Verde islands and serve
as photo reconnaissance, light bombers and fighter protection for those bases. They could also
escort heavy bombers operating from African bases. There are sufficient facilities on these islands
to protect the powers which occupy them first.
It is believed that French~ Portuguese and Spanish forces would augment the Axis forces in this
theatre should the Allies attack them.
 
       The requisite supply for all Axis forces in this theatre could easily be accomplished by air and
sea transport.