ALUSNA CAIRO
                         OPNAV                    PPPPPPPP
 
2 JANUARY 1942
 
ALLENSWORTH
 
 
V    TUCKER
 
FOLLOWING SECRET FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM BULL ITT.
 
 
! HOPE THAT YOU AND CHURCHILL IN YOUR PLANNING ARE KEEPING IN MIND
THE VITAL NEED TO RETAIN EGYPT AS A SECURE BASE NOT ONLY FOR
 
OPERATIONS IN LIBYA TUNISIA PALESTINE     THE LEBANON SYRIA AND TURKEY
BUT ALSO FOR TRANSIT OF PLANES TO INDIA AND THE FAR EAST.
 
AS I HAVE NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES THE DISTANCES IN THIS AREA ARE
SO IMMENSE AND THE FORCES ENGAGED RELATIVELY SO SMALL THAT A
 
COMPARATIVELY SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORCE ON THE GERMAN SIDE MIGHT
CHARGE THE PICTURE ENTIRELY. FOR EXAMPLE ONE LARGE CONVOY FROM
ITALY
 
TO TRIPOLI WITH SUFFICIENT AVIATION GASOLINE TO FURNISH THE GERMAN
SECOND FLYING CORPS NOW WAITING IN SICILY AND ITALY WOULD ENABLE
 
THAT CORPS TO OPERATE IN LIBYA AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE AIR FROM THE
BRITISH. IN VIEW OF THE PRESENT STATE OF THE BRITISH NAVAL FORCES
 
BASED ON ALEXANDRIA OF WHICH CHURCHILL HAS CERTAINLY INFORMED YOU
THE STOPPING OF CONVOYS TO TRIPOLI WILL NOT BE EASY. TO DRAW FORCES
 
AWAY FROM THIS AREA OR TO FAlL TO REENFORCE THIS AREA BECAUSE OF
DEMANDS FROM THE FAR EAST MIGHT LEAD TO A REPETITION OF EVENTS IN
 
LIBYA WHEN FORCES WERE WITHDRAWN TO GO TO GREECE. THE SUCCESSES
WHICH ......
THE BRITISH HAVE GAINED IN LIBYA HAVE BEEN DEARLY BOUGHT AND WILL
 
LEAD TO NO DECISIVE RESULT UNLESS TRIPOLI .SHOULD BF OCCUPIED. SOME
DAYS AGO I WAS SHOWN THE TELEGRAM IN WHICH THE BRITISH COMMAND
HERE