GLOBAL ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION, 1943-44
                      Reference: J.C.S. 272
 
                REPORT BY THE JOINT STAFF PLANNERS
 
     1.   A Global Estimate of the Situation, 1943-44, is contained in Enclosure "A."
 
     2.   The Most probably courses of action of the AXIS powers are as follows:
     1943.
 
     a.   EUROPEAN AXIS
 
     Intensify the war of attrition against UNITED NATIONS
 
shipping and resume the offensive in RUSSIA at the earliest
 
practicable moment, while assuming the defensive on all
 
fronts and retaining as long as possible the Tunisian
 
bridgehead.
 
     b.   JAPAN
 
          (1) Defeat of RUSSIA clearly imminentz
 
          JAPAN will attack SIBERIA.
 
          (2) Defeat of RUSSIA not clearly imminent
 
          JAPAN will remain on the strategic defensive,
 
exploit and consolidate her gains, intensify the war of attrition against shipping, and undertake
limited offensive operations in the AUSTRALIAN-NEW GUINEA SOLOMONS area, CHINA,
and BURMA, and vigorously counter UNITED STATES offensive action in the WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.
1944
 
          a. EUROPEAN AXIS
 
          (1) If RUSSIA is defeated in EUROPE.
 
     Conduct offensive action toward gaining control of
 
the MEDITERRANEAN and the PERSIAN GULF, while conducting
 
and air and submarine campaign against the UNITED NATIONS,
 
particularly the UNITED KINGDOM.
 
     (2)       If RUSSIA is not defeated in EUROPE.
 
Exploit the areas it controls, consolidate the fortress of EUROPE, and continue the U-boat 
 
campaign.
 
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