S E C R E T
 
activities, and loss of faith in and repudiation of their
present leadership by the Italian people. The disintegration
leading to chaos may be a gradual process and there should be
sufficient and timely intelligence as to the stages of its
development.
 
    7. GERMANY will take steps to prevent the collapse of ITALY,
even to the extent of sending some forces there, only as long as
GERMANY considers the retention of all or part of ITALY of
strategic value. Economically and politically, ITALY is a
liability rather than an asset. Wnen TUNISIA is cleared of
AXIS forces, SICILY would continue to be of strategic value to
GERMANY, and all evidence points to GERMAN assistance in the
defense of SICILY. The collapse of ITALY prior to successful
completion of HUSKY is therefore unlikely.
 
   8. A successful HUSKY, following the LIBYAN-TUNISIAN debacle,
is likely to have serious effects on Italian will to continue
to fight. Primarily GERMANY would wish to retain that part of
ITALY from which GERMANY could control the ADRIATIC coast (against
an invasion of the BALKANS) and SARDINIA and CORSICA (against 
an invasion of Southern FRANCE), and at the same time deny air bases
to the UNITED NATIONS. GERMANY would weigh these objectives
against requirements elsewhere, such as on the Russian Front and 
those resulting from the UNITED NATIONS air offensive. Thus, the
German reaction after HUSKY is difficult to predict. For the
purpose of the rest of this study, therefore, it is assumed that
when ITALY collapses, the German forces will have withdrawn from
the greater part of ITALY to a defensive line of their own choos-
ing.
 
   9. The unconditional surrender of ITALY will be brought about
primarily by Military action aided by varying combinations of the
factors listed in paragraphs 6 and 7 as contributing to her col-
lapse. She will not surrender unconditionally as long as GERMANY
dominates the Italian government and maintains forces in ITALY.
 
 
 
 
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