RS                                 BERN
This telegram must be 
closely paraphrased be-                 Dated July 29, 1941
fore being communicated 
to anyone. (SC)                         Rec'd 6 p.m.
 
 
Secretary of State,
 
     Washington.
 
     149, July 29, 5 p.m., (SECTION ONE)
 
     My 141, July 2, 3 p.m.
 
     Informant attributing to German General Staff 
 
and other reliable sources made following statements:
 
German eastern front losses of men and material and
 
fuel have been collossal, the men including reserves
 
now being completely exhaustsd physically. Fourteen
 
successive nights of effective bombing of Rumanian oil
 
fields, pipe lines and loading ports would, unless
 
Germany could find substitute oil supplies, terminate
 
war by end of August. Desperate German situation makes
 
absolutely essential that Turks be ready for surprise
 
thrust to Caucasus oil fields. Two German combat di-
 
visions have just been addsd to Bulgarian forces now
 
completing mobilization against Thrace. Italians con-
 
centrating in Greece and islands. Turks still seem
 
undecided and to counter Nazi propaganda must be held
 
in line by Russian guarantee backed by parallel Ameri-
 
can English guarantee of Turkish territorial inviol-
 
ability in event of Russian victory. Earlier than expected