The following extracts are from the Report of Ministry
of Economic Welfare: 
 
OIL
 
     Germany's overland transport routes are not thought at
 
present to be capable of handling more than the current Roumanian
 
oil export surplus of some 350,000 tons a month. In order to carry
 
on the Russian campaign Germany has to draw heavily upon her
 
stocks, which are at present inconveniently situated in that some
 
1,000,000 tons, or half of her free reserves, are in Roumania.
 
Although these are to some extent available to the southern
 
sector of her army, they cannot be made available in the North
 
by a direct route until considerable repairs and alterations to
 
rail communications in Western Russia have been effected. Un-
 
less, therefore, Germany can increase the rate of output from
 
Roumania, free stocks in Western Europe may become exhausted,
 
while there are still considerable reserves in Roumania. Un-
 
less some cure can be found this may result in a severe limita-
 
tion in Germany's future strategy. The only cure that is avail-
 
able is the removal by the sea route of Roumanian stocks through
 
the Dardanelles.
 
     It seems reasonable to assume that Russian naval activity
 
will decline in the Black Sea as the German advance proceeds and
 
that as the result of this the tanker traffic through the
 
Dardanelles will be speeded up. The importence of the success-
 
ful interception of tankers proceeding towards the Black Sea
 
cannot be over-emphasized. Not only will the lifting of stocks
 
from Constanza and the supplies to Axis forces in the Mediter-
 
ranean be retarded, but also the enemy will be deprived of a
 
tanker reserve within the Black Sea which would be of the
 
greatest importance to him not only in carrying Roumanian oil
 
forward during the period of his advance but also for carrying 
 
back Caucasian oil if he succeeds in capturing these oil fields.