COPY NO. 1
 
 
     APPRECIATION OF THE JAPANESE THREAT TO INDIA.
 
                 INVASION BY LAND.
 
1.                   The only line of invasion by land is from
BURMA through ASSAM, such an invasion being combined with 
air and sea borne attack in the area of the GANGES DELTA.
 
2.                  Unless they over-run BURMA the Japanese
cannot invade INDIA by land.  Assuming, however, that 
they do over-run BURMA, the scale of attack is limited 
by the over-riding factor of communications, which will 
therefor be considered first.
 
Communications.    (See sketch map attached).
 
3.                  The communications from French IND0-CHINA 
through YUNNAN to the Northern ASSAM rail-head at LED0 are 
so difficult that a threat from this direction can be 
disregarded.  Familarly even if the Japanese over-run 
the MANDALAY Area, communications beyond MYITKYNIA are 
such that an advance beyond that point in any strength 
is most unlikely.
 
4.                     There are only two other lines of advance.
            (a)        From MANDALAY via KALEMA - MANIPUR ROAD
                 and BRAHMAPUTRA VALLEY;     This is served by
                 only one Road of which the Southern Section
                 will be incomplete until April at the earliest
                 and of which the northern-most section is
                 liable to interruption during the summer rainy
                 season.           This latter section is, however,
                 also served by a single-line railway from
                MANIPUR ROAD to INDIA.