port of Bengazi is no longer being used by their ships.
 
              The German concentrations in southern Bulgaria
 should be completed by March 10, 1941. It may be expected
 that Hitler will shortly thereafter seek to occupy Greece, either
 by force or with imposed Greek consent. Strong German and
 Bulgarian forces, in the meantime,  are taking position to the
 north of Thrace to prevent Turkey from interfering with German
 operations in the direction of Salonika. No immediate German
 attack on Constantinople is to be expected.
 
              It is probable that the German reinforcements now in 
Africa have already added considerable strength to the Italian
 defenses of Tripoli. It is not believed that this strength is as yet
sufficient to undertake a campaign for the re-conquest of Cyrenaica,
 unless the British should markedly reduce their forces in this province.
 
              It cannot be predicted when German strength in Libya will
 reach a level which will permit offensive action toward Cyrenaica.
 Such will depend on the rate of movement of troops and supplies
 from Italy to Libya and the increase or diminution of British strength
 in Cyrenaica.
 
           Whereas the weather is not likely to interfere with military 
operations  in North Africa until September the necessity of accumulating
 supplies  would seem to bar any such extensive German operation as an
 attack on Egypt for some months.
 
              The German movement into North Africa, however, has westward
 as well as eastward military and political implications.
 
              With only Italians in Tripolitania, Weygand was not seriously
 threatened from that direction. With strong German forces in Tripolitania, 
Weygand is seriously threatened from that direction.
 
              The threat is against his weakest flank, even though it has a good
 fortified line. Tunisia is vulnerable from land, sea, and air; also, supplies
 and troops are less numerous in Tunisia than in Algeria and Morocco. 
The fortified line (Zareth Line) could be turned by mechanized columns
from Tripolitania or taken in rear by forces landed from Sicily under
 powerful air protection in case direct assault was considered unwise.
 
              Weygand's troops are indifferently equipped, lack essential
 supplies and are no match for a German force, even one considerably
 inferior in numbers.  Moreover, a large part of Weygand's
troops must remain distributed over a wide area to maintain
 order among the
 
                                    -2-