Op-16
 
            The submarine warfare, in general, has taken a
 tremendous drop. Allied and neutral merchant ship losses in
 March dropped to a daily average of about 4,500 tons.. The
 previous daily average for the war was around 7000 tons, which
 was about one-third of the World War rate. The indications are
 that the rate of loss in April will be only about half that
 of March. The query suggests itself, are the Germans using
 their submarines for transports to Norway.
 
         It is hard to see what good the Germans can get out
 of occupying various Norwegian ports, when they can have no
 surface entrance or exit from any of them except perhaps Oslo,
 and that undoubtedly seriously impeded by British submarines.
 
         Looking at the whole Norwegian situation objectively
 and without assuming either that there will be an early decision
 or that the Germans can be entirely run out of the country, I
 still believe the Allies have reason to feel that the Norwegian
 occupation will favor them more than the Germans. The Germans
 have paid the greater initial price. The present situation
while none too clearly defined, certainly does not impressively 
favor them. It casts considerable doubt as to the long term
 issue. I believe Mussolini can see that and will continue non-
committal. My own surmise is that the long term issue will 
favor the Allies.
 
       If you will let me know when additional memoranda 
from John Magruder and me are desired by the President, we
 will see that they are provided.
 
              Please present my respects and best wishes to the 
President. I hope he and you all are enjoying your change in
 the South.
 
With every good wish,
 
Faithfully yours,
 
W. S. Anderson,
Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy.
 
Captain Dan Callaghan, U.S.N.,
Aide to the President,
 
Warm Springs, Georgia 
 
(Hand Written Note)
Gestimate about 40,000 Germans in Norway