-6- #4294, August 1, 10 p.m., from London
 
          Any increase in strength in Britain and United States in 1943 will be out weighed by the
weakened state of the U.S.S.R. As a result by this spring of 1943 the balance of power will at best
remain unchanged compared to the present year. But the balance may deteriorate. 
     If the Soviet people and Red Army are disappointed in their expectations regarding Britain
and the United States, that experience is bound to live long in their memories. The greatest danger
of all is the postponement of the second front until next year. Every division landed on the
continent in 1942 is worth two or three divisions in 1943".
     If I may add a personal comment, I would like to say that there is a natural tendency to
discount the blackness of the picture drawn by Mr. Maisky and to see it only as second front
propaganda.  Personally I think this would be a very mistaken interpretation. I believe that his
anxiety about the present position is completely genuine.
     Will you please see that copies of this go to the White House and to General Marshall and
Admiral King.    
 
     
WINANT