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which have the effect of reducing the demand for
free sterling and of increasing the proportion of
our exports which can be used to pay for imports.
The effect of lowering the rate is natural and was
expected; what we have done is to strengthen our
exchange control, and it would be a travesty to
say that by so doing we are deliberately depreciating
our currency. On the contrary, weakness in sterling
due to the erratic market abroad is the natural corollary
of an efficient control over exchange transactions, and
it must be expected that despite the effects upon the
rate for free sterling we shall continue to strengthen
and extend our control in this and other ways.
Criticism which asserts that the fall in
the rate is damaging to our prestige is due to the
failure to appreciate that the market and the rate
are dominated by the official transactions, and that
the free markets deal only with a small overflow
which we are concerned to diminish but not to manage.
The relative unimportance of the movements in the
free sterling rate is demonstrated by the advance of
the quotation from the low point of 3.44 to 3.60
while this telegram was being drafted. The thinner
the market the larger the fluctuations are likely to
be.
30th March 1940.