- 3 -
 
CONCLUSIONS
     
     Although a consistent French profgram for defeated 
Germany is still in process of gestation, the following 
tentative conclusions seem justified:
 
     1) The French will contend that their security 
requires, as a minimum, a long occupation and effective 
economic controls, the nature of which remains to be de-
fined.
 
     2) A general dismemberment of the Reich will not be 
advocated by the French, although they would not be likely 
to oppose such dismemberment if it were suggested by other 
powers. The French will not sponsor the destruction of 
German industry and the reduction of Germany to an agarian 
state.
 
     3) The French seem prepared to approve the transfer 
of German territory east of the Oder to Poland and the 
U.S.S.R and the possible cession of border areas to 
Czeohoslovakia. Extensive territorial transfers in the 
east would tend to strengthen potential French claims in 
the west, for the principle of German sovereignity over 
German populations would thus be partially abadoned, and 
the French could match any strategic arguments which might 
apply to cession of territory to the Poles.
 
    4) The present French Government apparently aims to 
secure the annexation of the Rhineland to France.  French 
policy may, however, remain flexible until the three major 
powers have clarified their positions as regards Germany. 
Adapting themselves to circumstances, the French may consider 
it advisable to propose disguised rather than open annexa-
tion. Such a proposal would probably involve the creation 
of a Rhenish state or "mandated area", separated from Ger-
many by political and economic barriers, and oocupied by 
the French. The latter program, might be accompanied by a 
demand for outright annexation, of the Saar and perhaps some 
adjoining territory. As for the Ruhr, it appears likely that  a 
share in international ecomonic control of the area 
will satisfy the French.
 
     5) The spirit of  French policy toward Germany will 
be influenced by the distribution of party strength within 
France. The Provisional Government as now constituted 
represents what might be described as a moderate-conser-
vative attitude in respect to the German settlement.     
 
                                               Strong