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  4. The prolonged and difficult campaign in the East has affected 
German morale in the following respects:
    (a) Civilian supplies of all kinds have been diminished due, in 
part, to the pressure on transport facilities and on the labor supply. 
    (b) British bombing has been intensified.
    (c) Manpower losses have been sufficiently heavy to impress them-
selves upon the public.
    (d) Perhaps most important, total victory has ceased to be an 
immediate prospect for Germany.
  5. The official response of the propaganda ministry to this situa-
tion has been to present total victory against total annihilation as 
tile only real alternatives for the German people. 
  6. This suggests that the necessary condition for a "collapse of 
German morale" is the universal realization, as a result of serious 
military set-backs, that ultimate defeat is inevitable. Further drastic 
reductions in the civilian standard of life are capable of weakening 
morale in such a way as to make it more susceptible to military 
reverses and to collapse.
  7. Another possibility must be recognized, however. Should the 
tide of the war run strongly against Germany it is possible that 
German public opinion will shift from its present offensive attitude 
to one of last-ditch defense; and the full power of the propaganda 
ministry will be directed to that end. In that case, a distinct 
"collapse of morale" may not occur. But even this possibility is 
contingent upon a belief in some chance of German victory, coupled 
with a conviction that Allied victory would bring vengeance and 
disaster to the German people rather than peace and better living.