TREASURY DEPARTMENT
INTER OFFICE COMMUNICATION
DATE December 6, 1941
TO Secretary Morgenthau
FROM Mr. Kamarck
Subject: Estimates of the German Oil Position
Summary
All the available estimates indicate that Germany has been
forced to dip into her oil reserves for the Russian campaign.
The two up-to-date estimates, those of the British and Russians,
both conclude that, as a result, Germany will be forced to
restrict her military oil consumption. The British believe
that the Germans will be able to do this fairly easily, whereas
the Russians state that it may reduce German armored operations.
1. The Russian, British and Treasury studies all agree
that up to the invasion of Russia, the axis was able to maintain
its reserves intact, i.e. production was approximately equal to
the restricted consumption.
2. The Russian and Treasury estimates of the German oil
reserves prior to the Russian campaign are both 7,000,000 tons.
The British put the figure at 5,000,000 to 5,500,000 tons. An
Italian study published in August is more indefinite and says
only "some millions" of stocks were on hand.
3. Both the British and Russians agree that in the Russian
campaign the Germans have been forced to dip into their reserves.
The British calculate the deficit to be 400,000 tons a month,
the Russians, 900,000 tons. The Italian discussion does not
state so flatly but it can be deduced from the consumption and
production figures given that the German reserves had to be
drawn on. The Treasury has not made any studies of the German
oil situation during the Russian campaign and so no estimates
are available.
It is of interest to note that the Italian figures are much
closer to the Russian data than are the English figures. The
Russians believe that the Germans are consuming 2,000,000 tons
of oil a month in their military campaigns. The Italians say
that the consumption is 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 tons a month for
military purposes alone. The British put consumption for all
purposes at 1,500,000 tons.