S E C R E T
 
     A most optimistic view, excluding the capture of RABAUL,
can not envisage relief of ejnphibious divisions from the
SOLOMON - BISMARCK - NEW GUINEA area before February,1944.
Any division relieved will require four to six months for
rehabilitation.
     The 4th Marine Division is scheduled to depart UNITED
STATES in December, 1943. It could be earmarked as one of
the two amphibious divisions required for the capture of the
MARSHALLS, provided excessive losses are not encountered in
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC operations prior to the completion of the
MADANG (NEW GUINEA) - western NEW BRITAIN - BOUGAINVILLE
campaign.
     Therefore, for the capture of the MARSHALLS there is
available one Marine Corps amphibious division from the UNITED
STATES in December, 1943, while the other must be provided 
from the SOUTHWEST PACIFIC or by training an Army division
in the UNITED STATES.
     (1) Summary of. availability of' amphibious divisions
Campaign                       Divisions     Possible sources of 
number             Area                 required       divisions required
    1          MADANG-western     3                3 Marine Corps Divisions
                NEW BRITAIN -                     in SOUTH PACIFIC and
               BOUGAINVILLE                       SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
               (See par 11 a)
 
    2         BISMARCK                5                 3 Marine Corps Divisions
               ARCHIPELAGO    (possibly          used in Campaign No. 1,
               (See par.                  reduced           after 4 - 6 months
                11 c                        to three)          rehabilitation.
                                                  1 Marin'e Corps Division
                                                  from U S in Dec. , 1943. 
                                                 1 Army Division must be
                                                  trained.
    3         NEW GUINEA           5              CASE I
               (See par. 12)                           Army and Mar ine Corps
                                                  Divisions used in Campaign
                                                  No. 2, after 4 - 6 months
                                                  rehabilitation
                                                       or
                                                  CASE II
                                                  Train 5 Army Divisions
                                                  during Campaign No. 2.
                                   - 20 -