JOINT BOARD ESTIMATE OF
               UNITED STATES OVER-ALL PRODUCTION
                         REQUIREMENTS.
                                
 
 
II.  MAJOR MILITARY POLICY (Cont'd.)
 
     8.   Should Germany be successful in conquering Europe, she might then wish to
establish peace with the United States for several years, for the purpose of organizing her gains,
restoring her economic situation, and increasing her military establishment, with a view to the
eventual conquest of South America and the military defeat of the United States.  During such a
period of "peace", it seems likely that Germany would seek to undermine the economic and
political stability of the countries of South America, and to set up puppet regimes favorable to the
establishment on that continent of German military power.  In such circumstances, Germany
would have better chances to defeat the United States.  This concept can not be accepted as
certain, because it s conceivable that Germany might at once seek to gain footholds in the
Western Hemisphere.
 
     9.   Were Japan to defeat China and Russia, and obtain control of Siam, Malaya and
the Netherlands East Indies, it is probable that she likewise would endeavor to establish peace for
the purpose of organizing the "East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere".  Almost inevitably the Philippine
Islands would ultimately pass under Japanese hogomony.
 
     10.  It is believed that the overthrow of the Nazi regime by action of the people of
Germany is unlikely in the near future, and will not occur until Germany is on the point of military
defeat.  Even were a new regime to be established, it is not at all certain that such a regime would
agree to peace terms acceptable to the United States.
     
     11.  Assuming the truth of the views expressed in the preceding paragraph, it is the
opinion of the Joint Board that Germany and her European satellites can not be defeated by the
European Powers now fighting against her.  Therefore, if our European enemies are to be
defeated, it will be necessary for the United States to enter the war, and to employ part of its
armed forces offensively in the Eastern Atlantic and in Europe and Africa.
 
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