JOINT BOARD ESTIMATE OF
                UNITED STATES OVER-ALL PRODUCTION
                          REQUIREMENTS.
 
III. PROBABLE CHARACTER OF THE ENEMY'S MAJOR STRATEGY:
 
     (A)  GERMAN STRATEGY:
 
     15.  For Germany, the objective of the current phase of the war is
the complete military
and political domination of Europe, and probably of North and West
Africa.  If Germany is successful
she may then seek a period of peaceful refreshment, during which she
can reorganize Europe and
prepare for further adventures. However, the possibility can not be
dismissed that Germany might
seek at once to continue into India, South Africa, or South America.
 
     16.  Germany's present major strategic objectives, and the means
by which she seeks to
attain them, seem to be some or all of the following:
 
     a.   The conquest of European Russia, the destruction of the
Russian Armies, and the           overthrow of the Soviet regime.  This
is a task for the German army and air forces,       and will doubtless
absorb most of the energy available to these contingents for some
months to come.  Final success in this aim is still in the balance.
 
     b.   The destruction of the power of resistance of the   United
Kingdom, through       accelerated attrition of shipping, and contin
ued bombing of British facilities.  The           forces    employed
will be   surface raiders, submarines,   and aircraft in the
northwestern approaches and down through the Middle Atlantic, operating
from bases in Norway, France, Portugal, and French West Africa: and
merchant-type raiders distributed throughout all oceans.  Invasion of
England may possibly not be attempted unless these other measures fail.
 
     c.   The conquest of Egypt, Syria, Irak, and Iran.  This may be
the region in which the next
          major German offensive will be undertaken.  Large land and
air forces must be        employed, both German and Italian naval
forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and
 
 
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