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11. Invasion of British Isles. It is unlikely that Germany
could undertake solarge and risky operation as long as Russia
remains undefeated.
C0NCLUSI0N
12, Most probable Geman major operation likely to be made
through Ukraine (? towards) Caucasus to obtain oil. Meanhile,
every effort will be made to control the central and eastern
Moditerranean and to maintainand (?exploit) the position in
North Africa.
13. Following is our estimate of force Germany would require
for operation referred to in paragraph 5 to 11 above and of
time that must olapse between begining of withdrawal of divisions
from Russia. and concentration of force ready for attack
in several theatres of operation, "Z" day is date on which
withdravfal of divisions beginning:
(A) Renewed offensive against Russia.
(I) An offensive all along the Russian Front, We cannot
as yet see possibility of this operation, Forces required more
than Germans have got,
(ii) Thrust in south towards Caucasia (while containing
Russian armies in north and centre), Force required against
Caucasia some 30 Divisions (of which some 4 to 6 armoured and
4 to 6 motorised) and 1500 aircraft, Earliest date by which
this operation could be developed, Concentration on the southorn
sector Z upward 2-1/2 months, Fall of Rostov Z plus 3 months,
Occupation of Maikop -Tuapso area Z plus 4 to Z plus 4-1/2
months, Occupation of Srozni area Z plus 5 months, 0ccupation
of Batum- Balu area dependent on degree of resistance in
Caucasia.
?(B) Thrust through Turkey towards Syria and thence Iraq
and/or Egypt, Land force required 20 Divisions (including 4
armoured and 6 motorisod), Air force required -- if Germans do
cided to attack Turkey they would expect Turks to receive air
assistance from ourselves, Unlikely therefore that Germans would
attack until they had assembled, in area from central Mediterranean
to Black Sea (which must be breated as a whole) some 1500
aircraft in addition to all available Italian aircraft.
DECLASSIFIED
JCS memo, 1-4-74
By RHP, NLR, Date
FEB 19 1974