ENCLOSURE "A"
                                
                                
          GLOBAL ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION, 1943, 1944
                                
                    EUROPEAN AXIS SITUATION
 
4. The AXIS campaign against RUSSIA in 1942 failed to attain
 
the territorial objectives set, and resulted in serious losses.
 
AXIS forces are being driven out of AFRICA.. There is every indi-
 
cation that future AXIS operations will be directed towards
 
Military (the defeat of Russian armed forces in 1943) rather
 
than territorial objectives. The AXIS submarine campaign against ,
 
UNITED NATIONS shipping will be intensified.
 
a. Military. GERMANY is increasing the total number of her
 
divisions to about 330. ITALY may provide 70 divisions and
 
the satellite countries approximately 55 more, making a grand
 
total of 455.
 
At the end of 1942 the AXIS had a total of some 470
 
submarines. By the end of 1943, the total may increase to about 600. 
 
The strategic position of the Italian Navy has
 
been weakened by increased threat of air attack; it has shown
 
great unwillingness to risk its major units in action, is
 
short of cruisers, and has no aircraft carriers.  It is able,
 
however, to contain a substantial UNITED NATIONS naval force
 
in the MEDITERANEAN in an area in which this force may be
 
subjected to air attack.
 
          The German Navy, though its surface forces are of limited
 
size, contains a large British naval force in the NORTH
 
ATLANTIC.
 
     The German Air Force has an estimated strength of 9200
 
combat airplanes of which 6000 are assigned to operating squadrons in the 
 
combat zones. The rate of production is estimated at 1300 per month. 
 
However, by shifting from bombers to fighters, the number of airplanes produced
 
 may ultimately be increased. There are some indications that the
 
German Air Force is increasing its fighter strength at the