JOINT ACTION BY GERMANY AND JAPAN
 
     10. GERMANY and JAPAN are partners in the war only because of
 
self-interest. Joint action by them is founded primarily on co-
 
incidence of policy. Each is undoubtedly anxious to see that the
 
UNITED NATIONS power will be deployed increasingly against the
 
other partner. The major opportunity for coordinated German-
 
Japanese action lies in the Japanese capability to attack
 
SIBERIA. The Germans are keenly in favor of such an attack.
 
Joint German~Japanese action with a view to effecting a junction
 
through the MIDDLE EAST is not considered an AXIS capability.
 
FORECAST FOR 1944, EUROPEAN-AFRICAN AREA
 
     11. General. The determining factor in estimating the Military
 
situation which may exist in 1944 is the status of RUSSIA, i.e.
 
whether or not she is defeated in 1943. AXIS forces will, in
 
either case, be expelled from AFRICA, and UNITED NATIONS lines of
 
communication through the MEDDITERRANEAN will be greatly improved
 
by the latter part of 1943.
 
     12. If RUSSIA is defeated in EUROPE.
 
     a. German ground and service forces will probably be re-
 
duced in order to release men for industry and agriculture,
 
and thus relieve the strain on German economy. The extent of
 
the German Military effort, however, may be seriously de-
 
creased as a result of the UNITED NATIONS air offensive and of
 
losses sustained in the operations involving the defeat of
 
RUSSIA.
 
     b. SPAIN will remain at least a passive partner of the AXIS.  
 
TURKEY wi11 remain neutral, but UNITED NATIONS prestige and
 
influence in TURKEY will be materially decreased.
 
     c. A successful invasion of the UNITED KINGDOM in 1944 is
 
not considered an AXIS capability.
 
     d. The UNITED NATIONS air offensive will become the only effective means for 
 
conducting operations against the AXIS in
 
EUROPE.
 
                              -9-