e. The UNITED NATIONS will continue to blockade the
 
EUR0PEAN AXIS.
 
     f. The most probable AXIS course of action after the defeat
 
of RUSSIA will be to conduct offensive action toward gaining
 
control of the MEDITERRANEAN and the PERSIAN GULF, while con-
 
ducting an air and submarine campaign against the UNITED
 
NATIONS, particularly the UNITED KINGDOM.
 
13. If RUSSIA is not defeated in EUROPE.
 
     a. The scale of German Military effort in 1944 will be
 
below that of 1943.
 
     b. The major part of the AXIS Military forces will be ab-
 
sorbed on the Russian Front.
 
          c. Italian resistance will deteriorate still further.
 
     d. UNITED NATIONS success in the MEDITERRANEAN will force
 
the Germans either to reinforce ITALY or to withdraw from
 
ITALY and take over Italian commitments in FRANCE and the
 
BALKANS when Italian troops are recalled from those areas to 
 
defend the homeland.
 
     e. Turkish resistance to German influence will be strength-
 
ened and Spanish neutrality will continue.
 
     f. Defection will increase in the satellite and occupied countries.
 
     g. GERMANY'S goal will probably be to achieve a Military
 
 
stalemate.
 
     h. A serious, though perhaps not immediately critical,
 
decline in German morale will follow.
 
          i. The UNITED NATIONS air offensive will become an increas-
 
ingly important factor.
 
     j.  Under this assumption (RUSSIA not defeated), GERMANY'S
 
most likely course of action in 1944 will be to exploit the 
 
areas she controls, to consolidate the fortress of Europe and 
 
to continue the U-boat campaign.
 
                             - 10-