S E C R E T
 
     (b) Forces required.
                The Supreme Commander, SWPA, estimates that 7 
      infantry divisions, 5 of which are amphibious, will be 
      required to seize KAVIENG and capture RABAUL. It is
      believed, however, that with effective air neutraliza-
      tion of the RABAUL area, the foregoing estimate may be
      reduced to 5 divisions, 3 of which would be amphibious.
        The timing of the capture of the BISMARCK ARCHI-
      PEG0 will determine to a great extent the availability
      of ground forces. Provided there is sufficient time
      for reorganization and recuperation of malts, it appears
      the 5 divisions can be provided from the 18 offensive
      divisions allocated to the area as of January 1, 1944.
      This figure will be subject to revision after the
      operations now projected for the area get under way.
      The ground forces required for the successive operations
      in the BISMARCK-NEW GUINEA area must take into account
      the losses from malaria and battle casualties which
      necessitate withdrawal of troops to rear areas for
      rehabilitation after four to six months.
        It appears that 2,579 combat aircraft allocated
      to the SOUTH and SOUTHEAST PACIFIC as of January 1,
      1944, will be sufficient to complete the capture of the
      BISMARCK ARCHIPELAGO.
       (c) Time required for operation.
            Assuming the UNITED NATIONS establish positions
      in western NEW BRITAIN and southern BOUGAINVILLE by
      December 1, 1943, it is estimated that, exclusive of
      medical rehabilitation of personnel, at least two months
      will be required to reorganize amphibious units, develop
      the advance air bases, and make the complete preparations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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