S E C R E T
 
     PHASE II
     (1) Capture of the VOGELKOP area to include the Island
   of WAIGE0.
          This phase will be accomplished by the seizure of
   SCHOUTEN and JAPEN Islands on the north coast. The southern
   and western portion of the VOGELKOP will be seized after we
   have established positions in McCLUER GULF and AMBONIA.
   c. The capture of NEW GUINEA envisages a movement along
the coast line 1,200 miles in length. The forces required
for this operation, so distant in the future, cannot be
estimated with any degree of accuracy. After the loss of the
HUON PENINSULA and the RABAUL area, the enemy may decide to
withdraw to a more advantageous defensive position in the
CELEBES SEA area. On the other hand, he may be able to build
up his defenses in depth along the entire north coast.
         The extent of our control of the sea to the north of
NEW GUINEA will in a great measure determine the ease with,
which we eject him from the area.
     d. Estimate of enemy forces.
         (1) Ground forces
            It is estimated that the Japanese now have approximate-
ly 5 divisions deployed in the area. It is assumed that
this force could be augmented to a total of 8 divisions.
Port facilities and enemy shipping will be limiting 
factors.
     (2) Air forces
          It is estimated that the Japanese now have approxi-
mately 807 operative aircraft deployed in this area (SOUTH
and SOUTHWEST PACIFIC). It is assumed thst the Japanese
could reinforce to a total of 1,000 to 1,200 aircraft,
depending on the stateof their activity and requirements
on other fronts.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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DECLASSIFIED
 
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