3
4. The current rate of petrolcure consumption is being maintained out of stocks; and there is
some evidence, although the data are inadequate, that the petroleum stock-pile may be exhausted
with in the year 1942. On the whole, this seems unlikely.
5. The present transport situation has caused local shortages in civilian and some industrial
supplies. The present strain would be markedly accentuated if the current winter is severe, and the
internal water-ways frozen for prolonged periods.
6. German morale has been somewhat impaired by the prolongation of tim Russian war. Heavy
manpower losses and the increasing remoteness of ultimate victory have necessitated a defensive
shift in tlle nature of official German propaganda.
C. CONCLUSIONS.
The data are inadequate to assess these weaknesses fully. The following tentative conclusions,
however, appear justified:
1. The strains induced by the Russian war have reduced the absolute strength of the German
military machine and economic machine; and further limited the supplies at the disposal of
civilians.
2. Some of these strains, such as those in manpower and transport facilities, can perhaps be
alleviated by a period of respite from military operations on the present scale. Others, however,
reflect the gradual exhaustion of stock-piles of strategic raw materials--a process which is not
greatly affected by the scale of military operations, except in the case of petroleum.
3. German leadership is thus faced with a dilemma in timing: whether to hold military
operations down to a defensive minimum, while maximizing preparations for new offensives next
spring; or to push on during the winter into areas possessing supplies of needed raw materials in
order to strengthen immediately the basic position. Many facts unknown to us, or known
imprecisely, will influence the decision. It seems likely, however, that in the coming months
German military operations, whether directed towards strategic or economic goals, will be on a
much reduced scale.
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