(f) The Rumanian oil fields may be exploited more fully.
     5. On the basis of present evidence, therefore, it cannot be predicted that Germany will
suffer a critical petroleum shortage in 1942.
 
E. THE GERMAN TRANSPORT SITUATION
 
     1. Upon the outbreak of war in 1939 the German transport sys-
tem was probably in good physical condition. At that time, however,
the limit of intensive utilization of rolling stock had about been
reached; subsequent transport demands have been met largely by
curtailing civilian services.
     2. From 1939 the traffic burden of the railways has been increased by the reduction in
coastwise shipping and in trucking, due to the gasoline shortage. The relocation of industry and
the increased use of coal, wood pulp, bauxite, and potatoes in the development of substitutes have
also increased the transport load. The acquisition of transport responsibilities in east and southeast
Europe has probably involved some net liability to the German transport system. France and the
Low countries, on the other hand, probably contributed an important accretion of rolling stock
and locomotives.
     3. Until the Russian campaign the transport facilities under German control proved
adequate generally for the requirements of the war economy. This rough equilibrium was achieved
by curtailing civilian services, by avoiding coincidence between the harvest peak load and large
scale military movements, and through the above-mentioned accretion of rolling stock. The
greatest period of strain occurred during the winter of 1939-40, when the unusually severe freeze
immobilized the inland waterways (which carry 25 percent of all freight).
     4. The additional burden imposed by the Russian campaign has been sufficient to cause
symptoms of a transport shortage, potentially capable of reducing the total efficiency of the
German war economy; coal has accumulated at pitheads in Silesia, crop movements have been
delayed, measures to increase the use of waterways have been taken, and efforts have been made
to speed the loading and unloading of trains. Local shortages of consumers goods have
accentuated