1. The German Program
 
      
 
 
Details of the German air program are a well-kept secret. 
      Nevertheless, a wide variety of information is available to the 
      Air Ministry from which it is possible to form certain deductions. 
      By a process of checking and cross checking a reasonably firm 
      estimate can be made of the first line strength* of the present 
      German Air Force, and a forecast - necessarily more conjectural 
      - of future intentions.
 
      
 
 
2. The Air Ministry believe that the first line strength of 
      the German Air force on the 1st April 1939 was approximately 
      3,750 aircraft. They also believe that, unless there is some 
      radical change in German plans, the first line strength in February 
      1940 will not exceed 4,500 aircraft. It is believed to be the 
      German aim to hold 100% of modern reserves behind this first 
      line. These estimates are believed to be reliable; they fit in 
      with the available evidence and they have been duly correlated 
      with figures of present and estimated future German aircraft 
      production.
 
      
 
 
3. The Air Ministry has made a detailed analysis of the very 
      considerable mass of information available about German aircraft 
      production. On the basis of the most up-to-date information in 
      their possession the Air Ministry believe that the rate of production 
      of all types of aircraft for the German Air Force (a figure which 
      is generally exaggerated by visitors to Germany) probably averaged 
      700 per month during 1938 and that a monthly average of 900 to 
      1,000 may be achieved in 1939. As the output of first line types 
      represents about two-thirds of
 
      
 
 
* See note at end of Paper.