FORECAST FOR 1944 - PACIFIC, AND FAR EAST
 
14. General.
 
     Since the United Nations main effort in 1943 will be made 
 
in the EUROPEAN - AFRICAN Area, operations in the PACIFIC and
 
FAR EAST will continue with the object of maintaining pressure on 
 
JAPAN, accomplishing the attrition of enemy f'orces, retaining the
 
initiative, and attaining a position of readiness for a full
 
scale offensive against JAPAN as soon as GERMAN is defeated.
 
         Though the D~iTED NATIONS should have a potential air 
 
advantage, the dispositions of air forces will not be such as to
 
permit their decisive application.
 
     The UNITED NATIONS naval forces will be superior to those
 
of JAPAN.
 
     The situation with regard to JAPAN will be strongly in-
 
fluenced by the.status of RUSSIA in EUROPE, and of CHINA.
 
15. If the defeat of RUSSIA is clearly imminent, and CHINA continues in the war.
 
          If the defeat of RUSSIA in EUROPE becomes apparent in 1943 
 
the Japanese will most likely attack SIBERIA.
 
     In such a case:
 
     a. The major part of the Japanese offensive effort will be
 
directed toward RUSSIA in 1944.
 
     b. Limited offensives by the UNITED NATIONS against JAPAN
 
in the PACIFIC areas and SOUTHEASTERN ASIA will be facilitated.
 
     c. Lend-Lease deliveries to RUSSIA will be reduced.
 
          d. There will be no substantial change in the situation in CHINA.
 
16. If the defeat of RUSSIA is not clearly imminent.
 
          If the imminence of defeat of RUSSIA is not clear to JAPAN 
 
in 1943, an attack against SIBERIA is unlikely. In this case
 
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