S E C R E T
 
         Experiences to date in NEW GUINEA and the SOLOMON
ISLANDS indicate that combat units can carry on offensive
operations for approximately 3 months, after which they must 
rear be withdrawn to/rear positions for recuperation. For each 
division (or similar combat unit) actually engaged with the 
enemy, it is essential that an additional division be located 
in the combat zone in order to insure the availability of 
combat units to meet counter-attacks or recoup an unfavorable 
situation. Due to the distances involved, the recuperative 
period will be about 6 months. It follows that one-third the
combat units will at all times be in, or enroute to, recupera-
tive bases too far from the combat zone to be available for 
an emergency. For planning purposes, it can therefore be 
assumed that not over one-third of the offensive divisions 
actually in the area will be available for operations at any 
given date. The foregoing estimate is substantiated by 
experiences thus far in the PACIFIC Theater.
      Estimates of requirements for subsequent operations
are therefore based on the foregoing analysis.
 
19. Operations in CHINA
      a. Air
         The estimated aircraft requirements for CHINA as listed
in paragraph 9 d above, totals 473 airplanes.
         Present deployments indicate the following total air-
craft available, and shortages, not classified by types:
 
               Aircraft
               available      Shortage
Present            209                 264
 
July 1, 1943            209                 264
 
Jan 1, 1944             209                 264
 
July 1, 1944            279                 194
 
Jan 1, 1945             279                 194
 
              
 
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