(d) Attacks by midget submarines and Coastal Motor Boats launched from these ships.
 
            Surprise attack by carrier-borne aircraft on concentration of shipping at Port Darwin, or
ports further South, possible.
 
2. MAJOR 0PERATIONS.
 
     Japanese plans at this stage not thought to embrace major attack            
on Austrlia and New Zealand, as distinct from raids as set out above. Only exception is attempt to
occupy Darwin.
 
3. CONDITIONS
 
     Before making major attack against Austraila and New Zealand,  Japanese Naval Staff
would probably require following conditions fulfilled: (a) Singapore in Japanese hands or
boleagueed and Java, Sumatra and Phillippine Islands in Japanese hands.
                                                                                   (b) Japanese control extended in South
China Sea by occupying key points in Islands of East Indaian Archipelago as far as Timer
inclusive, and Islands of New Guinea, New Caledonia,Fiji and Samoa group.
                                                                                   (c) No hostilities with Russia or situation
on that front not such as to require matarial for strengthening of Japanese force in that area.
                                      (d) (?To) retain power to transport large
bodies of troops over long line of sea communications, without risk of serious loss from Allied
action.
 
4. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS
 
           Japanese strategy at present see cs to be aiming especially at (a) and (b) above as rapidly as
possible. If successful Japan wiil be established in powerful advanced Naval and air positions with
safe lines of communications to Home bases, will also threaten communications between America
and New  Zealand and thus be strongly placed to secure major gains and proceed
with further aims as follows:- (a) Full scale operations against Burma (for whiich preliminary
moves already in progress) and thence possibly towards India.
                    (b) Full scale operations against Australia and New Zealand
                    (c)Attack against Russia- which we consider improbable. It is too
conjectural to say at this stage, which of the two remaining courses Japanese would adopt, but
they would be unlikely to adopt more than one at the same time. Operations against Burma, with
limited objective as far as say, Rangoon, need not await outcome of operations in Malayan
Archipelago and would not preclude simultaneous operations against Australia and New Zealand.
 
5. GENERAL METHODS OF ATTACK
     (a) Before attempting any major operation against Australia and New Zealand, Japanese
likely to attempt capture of Darwin,  denying to us only possible bases in Northern Australia. Due
to its isolated position Darwin is an attractive target for capture before it is strengthened and
while our military strength in this area comparatively weak.