March 31, 1942
 
 
Dear Mr. President:
 
     Last December, in a conference with you, it was agreed that it was within our economic
potential to produce completed minitions war facilities and military construcy=tion to the value
of $40 billions in calender year 1942 and $60 billions in 1943. We feel certain that these are
sensible goals although, at the time when they were set, many doubted that they were attainable.
At that time, the production schedules for all items, extended at peak, represented commitments
amounting only to $27 billions for 1942 and $34 billions for 1943. Thus there was, according to
our calculations, margin for additional requirements amounting to approxiamtely $13 billions for
1942, and $26 billions for 1943.
 
     The specific objectives which you set for airplanes, tanks, anti-aircraft and anti-tank guns,
and merchant shipping were accomplishable withjin the margin between the then exisy=ting
production programs and the production possibilities of the Nation. 
 
     Since that date the programs which have been formulated by the Army, the Navy, and the
Maritime Commision have expanded far beyond the $40 billion and $60 billion estimations. As
these programs now stand, they represent munitions and war construction outlays totalling some
$62 billions for 1942 and $110 billions for 1943.
 
     The War Department had advised me that it is submitting recommendations to you for the
modification of certain of the specific objectives which you have set which would permit the
production of armored cars, self-propelled artillery weapons and other arms necessary to provide
a balanced eqipment fo rthe Army. As you realize, I do not feel qualified to pass on the relay=tive
urgency of weapons desired by the Army. However, I have examined the production possibilities
and must report that, in my judgement, it will not be possible to provide all of the items set forth
in your list of objectives, and at the same time produce everything else now called for under the
programs of the Army, the Navy, the Maritime Commision, and the Defense Aid, which would
call for the total outlays of $62 and $110 billions as stated above.