February 16, 1942.
 
 
  Dear Mr. President : As you know, in Northern Areland there are at
 
present but two British divisions and one of our regiments with
 
some odds and ends extra . Before this gets to you it is possible 
 
that more of our troops will move in but even so, the situation is 
 
dangerous. Within a fortnight I hope to get off to you some sort 
 
of rough estimate of what people on the ground feel is requsisite 
 
in the way of troops and materiel in order to give us a preponder-
 
ance of force against any possible German invasion.
 
   A British air intelligence officer off the record tells me that
 
he believes it possible for the Germans to land 200.000 air born 
 
troops in Southern Ireland in a few days, with fuel and amunition, 
 
artillery and three ton tanks. With air bases established they could 
 
undoubtedly run in a big convoy landing three divisions in the 
 
Cork-Wexford area. If they control the island Britain is pretty well 
 
cooked, as the life line of supplies will be cut. You know what can 
 
be done and what not with the means available. I am writing to you 
 
direct, instead of through channels because you will see at once what 
 
I mean and its significance and not pooh pooh the possibility and 
 
talk about British sea power. Off hand it seems as if three of our 
 
tank divisions and six mobile divisions would be a minimum force 
 
to make the defense secure, that is on the assumption that Britain 
 
 
could send over two or three more divisions within forty eight hours. 
 
If the Germans seize the air fields as they would easily do