28 May 1934
                                            T.S.W.
 
          Extract from General Board draft of "Trend of
               Naval policy of signatory nations."
 
 
     ....(From a study of the information available)....
The probable attitude of the several nations at the 1935 Conference may be inferred.  All nations
will favor agreement on a naval limitation treaty in some form.  All nations except Japan will be
agreeable to actual reduction of their fleets, that is, the establishment of limitations lower than
those of the Washington and London Treaties; Japan will desire to increase her fleet.  All nations
except the United States may be expected to urge the reduction of the maximum characteristics of
battleships, heavy cruisers, and light cruisers.  Japan will insist upon an increase in ratio in the
heavy categories and actual increase in tonnage allowed in light cruisers, destroyers, and
submarines; she will propose the abolition of aircraft carriers.  Great Britain will urge an increase
in light cruiser tonnage and will press for the abolition of submarines or for a material reduction in
that category.  France and Italy will desire an increase of capital ship ratios and will insist upon
cruiser, destroyer, and submarine strengths in greater ratio than that now allowed for capital
ships.  France and Japan may particularly be expected to oppose a reudction of submarine
tonnage.  The United States will find Great-Britain favorable to any stand for the maintenance of
their respective ratios toward Japan, for the abolition of submarines, and for the maintenance of
aircraft carriers, but will probably be forced to play a lone hand if she urges the maintenance of
the present characteristics of battleships and cruisers.  No single item upon which general
agreement will be readily forthcoming can confidently be predicted.