At this time ships are available for convoy to the U.S.S.R.
 
approximately as follows:
 
In Iceland and England ....................... 61
 
En route from United States to Iceland ....... 30
 
Loading in United States and England ......... 15
 
Scheduled to load in U.S. within next 2 weeks 38
 
Scheduled to load in England within next
                         2 weeks ...........                      20
 
                    Total .......164 ships
 
     Information was received from England to the effect that only
 
three convoys can be taken to northern Soviet ports during each two
 
month period and each convoy can escort only 25 ships.
     
     At my request, the Prime Minister of Great Britain personally
 
reviewed this estimate and reluctantly confirms it.
 
     It therefore appears to be necessary for the present to curtail
 
total loadings destined for the northern route so that they will conform
 
to probable convoy limitations. However, it is planned to make arrange-
 
mants in consultation with your representatives for the loading of high 
 
priority items so that they can go forward. It is also planned to
 
increase shipments through the Persian Gulf to the maximum extent 
 
practicable which, for the present, appears to be a total of 15 ships per month with a total cargo 
 
of 80,000 tons.
 
       I sincerely regret that it is necessary to send you this information at a time when you and your 
 
country are in need of larger and larger shipments of munitions and you may rest assured that 
 
both the Prime Minister and I will do everything within our power to increase the flow to the 
 
maximum extent practicable.