2.   Types of Reconstruction Needs.
 
          The reconstruction needs of the areas under reference 
will, of course, vary from country to country. Poland is 
the only country that may require extensive industrial 
reconstruction. This will depend almost  entirely on the 
future  course of the war over Polish territory. If the 
extensive industrial installations in the west remain 
intact, Poland may be able to supply almost all of her
reconstruction requirements from internal resources. Should 
these districts  be "scorched", however, not only would the 
amount of damage be enormously increased, but there would 
also be destroyed, in whole or in great part, Poland's 
ability to repair the damage by herself.
 
          All of the countries involved are likely to stand in 
need of reconstruction of  their railway systems, owing to 
the large-scale, thoroughgoing looting of rolling stock by 
the retreating enemy, destruction of road-bed and bridges, 
etc.
 
         The economies of both Poland and the Balkan states, 
particularly of the latter, are predominantly agricultural, 
and in the field of agriculture it is difficult to draw 
a sharp line between "reconstruction"  and  "development."   
Much of the agriculture in these countries is conducted by 
primitive methods, and improvement in this sector of the 
economy holds out the greatest hope for raising standards 
of living from their present very low level.
 
3.   Possible Forms of American Participation.
 
          The United States can share in the reconstruction of 
Poland and the Balkans in several different ways, prominent 
among which would be direct loans, from the Export-Import 
Bank and participation in loans by the International Bank 
for Reconstruction and Development. Private American 
investment is unlikely in this area for some years to come 
at least.
 
          Probably one of most useful and at the same time
least expensive forms in which the United States can aid 
in the reconstruction of Poland and the Balkan states is 
 
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