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probably be serious fuel shortages in the large cities with accompanying
discontent. At the present time Britain is supplying Ireland with about
half the petrol supplied a year ago. This, instead of being for motor
lorries, has been rationed somewhat liberally to private car owners
with the result that it is used for pleasure purposes and not stored for
emergencies. The food supply, if the Government reports on the harvest are
to be believed and they are probably not more than 25 per cent exaggerated
as to wheat, will not become serious this year, although, in spite of the
Government statements, it is unlikely at the outside that more than eight
months supply of wheat has been produced in the recent crop. The sugar
position is likewise uncertain, but the Government feels warranted in
allowing the liberal ration of one pound a week. Unemployment would be a
very serious menace to the De Valera Government if it were not for the
absorption of considerable numbers by the British labor market. If the
seasonal agricultural workers were not retained by Britain, their return
would aggravate the situation.
It would appear from the foregoing that, by the total with holding of coal
and petrol, all industry and transport in Ireland could be disorganized
within a very short period, probably six weeks. My personal view of this
situation is that it should not be treated in a spirit of retribution
but that on the other hand neither the British nor the American
Governments should be sentimental about it. They should not enforce
sacrifices upon their own nationals for the benefit of Irish neutrals.
From the British point of view, especially, this situation, as far as it
can be detached from the general military crisis, should be regarded as
an opportunity to educate the Irish people to the realities of their
situation, that is to say, to a realization