JOINT BOARD ESTIMATE OF
                UNITED STATES OVER-ALL PRODUCTION
                          REQUIREMENTS.
 
III. PROBABLE CHARACTER OF THE ENEMY'S MAJOR STRATEGY:
 
     (B)  JAPANESE STRATEGY:
 
          18.  The Japanese objective is the establishment of the "East
Asia Co-Prosperity
Sphere".  It is Japan's ambition ultimately to include within this
Sphere Eastern Siberia, Eastern
China, Indo-China, Thai, Malaya, the Netherlands East Indies, the
Philippines, and possibly
Burma.  The accomplishment of this objective is a heavy task for
Japan's strength, a fact well
realized by the Japanese.
 
          19.  Dependent upon results in Europe, Japan's strategic
moves might be as
follows:
 
          a.   Building up and maintaining an effective screen in the
Japanese Kandato              Islands by the employment of minor naval
forces and considerable air            forces, supported by the
COMBINED FLEET.  This activity would include
               submarine and raider action against United States naval
forces and United            States and British lines of communication
in the Central and Eastern Pacific
               Ocean.
 
          b.   The conquest of Eastern Siberia by means of land and air
operations             covered by the COMBINED FLEET operating to the
eastward of Japan.
 
          c.   The conquest of Thai, Malaya, t   he Netherlands East
Indies, and the              Philippines.  Success will require strong
air forces, a considerable strength             of light naval forces,
and rather large land forces.  It is unlikely that Japan will
simultaneously attempt a major effort to the Northward and to the
Southward, because of her lack of equipment and raw materials.
 
 
 
 
                               -8-