JOINT BOARD ESTIMATE OF
                UNITED STATES OVER-ALL PRODUCTION 
                          REQUIREMENTS.
 
III. PROBABLY CHARACTER OF THE ENEMY'S MAJOR STRATEGY:
     (B)  JAPANESE STRATEGY: (19-Cont'd)
 
     d.   An offensive from Northern Indo-China against Yunnan for the purpose of cutting the       Burma Road and eliminating further resistance of the Chinese Nationalist army.  This           move might be supplemented by an attack on Burma.  Considerable land and air forces
          would be required, as well as a large amount of shipping to provide the necessary         support.
 
     20.  All of these prospective Japanese moves would be made at great distances from Japan. 
If Japan encounters stubborn and protracted resistance, her ability to continue offensives at these
distances is problematical, owing to a lack of adequate resources and industrial facilities.  Marked
weakness or lack of cohesion on the part of her opponents might permit Japan to accomplish any one
of these objectives within the next few months.
 
IV.  MAJOR STRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATES.
 
     21.  The Joint Board is convinced that the first major objective of the United States and
its Associates ought to be the complete military defeat of Germany.  If Germany were defeated, her
entire European system would collapse, and it is probably that Japan could be forced to give up much
of her territorial gains, unless she had already firmly established herself in such strength that the
United States and its Associates could not afford the energy to continue the war against her.
 
     22.  An inconclusive peace between Germany and her present active military enemies
would be likely to give Germany an opportunity to reorganize continental Europe and to replenish
her strength.  Even though the British Commonwealth and Russia were completely defeated, there
would be important reasons for the United States to continue the war against Germany, in spite of
the greatly increased difficulty of attaining final victory.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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