Peninsula would subsequently be a heavy economic liability.  This operation therefore appears
likely, only in order to counter or forestall action against ourselves or America. (b) Through
North Africa ports against Egypt from west, possibly in conjunciton with an attack through
Turkey.  Germans will attempt to maintain and exploit their position in North Africa, and for this
purpose reinforce Rommel with forces necessary.  Presence of strong air force in central
Mediterranean area would serve to neutralize Malta and protect comunication with Tripoli. 
Germany may try to capture Malta.
11.       Invasion of British Isles.  It is unlikely that Germany could undertake so large and
risky operation as long as Russia remains undefeated.
CONCLUSION
12.       Most probable German major operation likely to be made through Ukraine
(towards) Caucasus to obtain oil. Meanwhile every effort will be made to control the central and
eastern Mediterranean and to maintain and (exploit) the position in North Africa.
13.                 Following is our estimate of force Germany would require for operation referred
to in paragraph 5 to 11 above and of time that must elapse between beginning of withdrawal of
divisions from Russia and concentration of force ready for attack in several theatres of operation.
"Z" day is date on which withdrawl of divisions beginning:
          (A) Renewed offensive against Russia.
          (i) An offensive all along the Russian Front.  We cannot as yet see possibility of
this operation. Forces required more than Germans have got.
 
                               -4-