b. The Tunisian Campaign, now in final stages, has dis-
closed that AXIS air defense in TUNISIA has virtually col-
lapsed.
 
    c. The HUSKY operation may disclose the final intention
of GERMANY to assist ITALY both in the air and with ground 
forces. Assuming determined defense, it is estimated that 
when this operation is completed the AXIS can have evacuated 
1 German air field division, 1 German division (less heavy 
equipment), and 1/2 Italian semi-motorized division, to the 
Toe of ITALY.
 
    d. The UNITED NATIONS air attack on the Italian Mainland,
if concentrated on aircraft production centers, shipping con-
centrations, transportation, and strategic industry centers, 
is certain to reduce to a large extent the Italian capabilities 
for resistence. The extent of this reduced capability and 
the effects on Italian morale cannot be assessed soundly.
 
    e. It is now estimated that German capabilities to rein-
force ITALY by ground forces without withdrawal from the 
Russians front is limited to 5 divisions. Of these, it is im-
probable that more than one German division would be sent to the 
Toe of ITALY, and it could begin to errive in the Toe in 36 
hours from MUNICH. The forces now in the Toe are the Italian 
212 Coastal Division in the CATANZARO area and the Italian 104 
semi-motorized Division in the NICASTR0 area. ITALY will 
probably reinforce the Toe following the loss of SICILY. 
Forces are available for its defense, and it is estimated 
that the three divisions near ROME could be in the Toe in 
one week providing maximum rail and road capacities are 
still available. There are 14 divisions in ITALY, of which  
are semi-motorized, and none are armored. Italian troops 
in FRANCE, CROATIA, and SLOVENIA (ll divisions) can be
 
DECLASSIFIED
JCS memo, 1-4-74 
By RHP, NLR, DATE FEB 19 1974
 
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