(6)  The advance from Rostov to the line Armavir-Maikop-Tuapse (150 miles) could
be made in about 1 + months; that is, about 2 months after "D" day, or by 15 July.  This estimate
is based on an assumption that the Kerch Peninsula is defended strongly and that the Germans are
unable to force a landing at Novorossisk and Tuapse.  These assumptions are considered
reasonably sound.  The occupation of Grozni could well occur 2 months later, that is "D" plus 4
months, or 15 Sept.
     (7)  If the campaign reached this point in accordance with this highly theoretical time
schedule, it would find the Germans solidly in control of Stalingrad and the Volga north thereof,
while the Russian Army defending the Caucasus would have falled back beyond Grozni.  A major
decision would then arise as to whether the remnants of this Russian Army would withdraw
towards Astrakan or decide to continue the defense of the oil regions of Baku, falling back on the
Trans-Caucasus and ultimately on Iran.  It must be remembered that the Russian forces defending
in this Caucasus area would then be hopelessly separated from the main Russian Armies, which
would probably have withdrawn on the Kazan-Kuibyshev front.
     c.   Secondary operations in Russia.  Containing action to prevent Russian forces in
the north from disrupting the German advance toward theCaucasus is essential to the success of
the main effort outlined in such detail above. It is believed that this would be accomplished by a
secondary attack northeastward, generally along the Oka River, with a view to seizing Gorki and
Kazan, driving tho Russian forces north and east of the Volga River. By the same reasoning and
consideration of time schedule it would seem that this maneuver would require about 4 months.
The Russian forces, if all went well, would thus become hopelessly divided.
     d.   The Middle East.  (1) Discussion of another likely secondary effort is pertinent.   
This effort would envisage heavy reinforcements to Rommel with a view to over-ruuning Egypt,
 
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