COPY NO. 1 APPRECIATION OF THE JAPANESE THREAT TO INDIA. INVASION BY LAND. 1. The only line of invasion by land is from BURMA through ASSAM, such an invasion being combined with air and sea borne attack in the area of the GANGES DELTA. 2. Unless they over-run BURMA the Japanese cannot invade INDIA by land. Assuming, however, that they do over-run BURMA, the scale of attack is limited by the over-riding factor of communications, which will therefor be considered first. Communications. (See sketch map attached). 3. The communications from French IND0-CHINA through YUNNAN to the Northern ASSAM rail-head at LED0 are so difficult that a threat from this direction can be disregarded. Familarly even if the Japanese over-run the MANDALAY Area, communications beyond MYITKYNIA are such that an advance beyond that point in any strength is most unlikely. 4. There are only two other lines of advance. (a) From MANDALAY via KALEMA - MANIPUR ROAD and BRAHMAPUTRA VALLEY; This is served by only one Road of which the Southern Section will be incomplete until April at the earliest and of which the northern-most section is liable to interruption during the summer rainy season. This latter section is, however, also served by a single-line railway from MANIPUR ROAD to INDIA. |