- 2 -
 
 
                 (b)          From CHITTAGONG across the GANGES -
          BRAHMAPUTRA DELTA;    this consists chiefly 
          of tracks or very poor reads all of which 
          are subject to interruption in the summer 
          rainy season, but it is also served by 
          fairly good railway communications to INDIA. 
          Communications from Southern BURMA to 
          CHITTAGONG are extremely poor, but the 
          Japanese could build up their forces there 
          by the use of small coastal craft which 
          could then be used for landings along the 
          BENGAL Coast. Air cover can also be 
          provided from landing grounds along the 
          BURMA Coast.
 
Estimation of Japanese Scale of Attack by Land.
 
5.                        Japan would have no difficulty in making 
available the necessary land forces together with 
strong air forces.    It is estimated that they could 
concentrate, deploy and maintain:-
 
                  (a)         One or possibly two Divisions advancing
                        from MANDALAY by the route to the BRAHMAPUTRA
                        VALLEY.
                  (b)         About two Divisions from the CHITTAGONG
                        Area advancing by land and sea against
                        the GANGES DELTA Area.
 
                     INVASION BY SEA.
 
6.                          The success of a sea borne expedition 
against INDIA depends on the defeat or neutralization of 
British naval forces based on CEYLON. The modern section 
of this fleet consists only of a striking force of one 
battleship and two aircraft carriers until April/May when 
it will be reinforced by a second battleship and a 
third carrier.