-3-
 
The four old "R" class battleships now on or near 
the INDIAN OCEAN can only be considered as suitable 
for convoy escorts. For early warming of any large-
scale expedition approaching INDIA, we shall depend 
upon our ability to maintain sufficient submarine 
and air patrols.
 
7.                 In view of the distance of their nearest 
repair base, such an operation by the Japanese would 
be risky and difficult, but the strategical advantage 
of early attack would be immense and this possibility, 
therefore, cannot be disregarded. If such an operation 
were attempted, it is very probable that the initial 
stroke would consist of a surprise bombing attack on 
TRINCOLALEE, the defences of which are still relatively 
weak, and if success were achieved it could be followed 
up by the immediate invasion of CEYLON with a probable 
secondary invasion of the MADRAS area.
 
Scale of Japanese Attack by Sea.
 
8.                In spite of their present commitments,
the Japanese still have available sufficient forces 
and shipping for a seaborne expedition now by two 
divisions. The provision of garrisons for the 
Netherlands East Indies is unlikely to prove a heavy 
commitment and provided therefore that they do not 
at the same time undertake major operations against 
Australia, Japan can collect forces for operations 
against INDIA and CEYLON at a greater rate than we 
can reinforce those places.