TEXT OF MESSAGE DATED FEBRUARY 15th FOR           
 
            THE PRESIDENT FROM MR. WINSTON CHURCHILL.       
 
                                                            
 
 
Many drifting straws seem to indicate Japanese intention to 
      make war on us or do something that would force us to make war 
      on them in the next few weeks or months. I am not myself convinced 
      that this is not a war of nerves designed to cover Japanese encroachments 
      in Siam and Indo-China. However, I think I ought to let you know 
      what the weight of the Japanese navy, if thrown against us, would 
      confront us with situations beyond the scope of our naval resources. 
      I do not myself think that the Japanese would be likely to send 
      large military expedition necessary to lay siege to Singapore. 
      The Japanese would no doubt occupy whatever strategic points 
      and oilfields in Dutch East Indies and thereabouts that they 
      covet and thus get into a far better position for a full-scale 
      attack on Singapore later on. They would also raid Australian 
      and New Oealand ports and coasts causing deep anxiety in those 
      Dominions which have already sent all their best-trained fighting 
      men to the Middle East. But the attack which I fear the most 
      would be by raiders including possibly battle-cruiser upon our 
      trade routes and communications across the Pacific and Indian 
      Oceans. We could by courting disaster elsewhere send a few strong 
      ships into these vast waters, but all trade would have to go 
      into convoy and escorts would be few and far between.