Not only would this be a most grievous additional restriction 
      and derangement of our whole war economy, but it would bring 
      altogether to an end all reinforcements of the armies we had 
      planned to build up in the Middle East from Australian and Indian 
      resources. Any threat of a major invasion of Australia or New 
      Oealand would of course force us to withdraw our fleet from the 
      Eastern Mediterranean with disastrous military possibilities 
      there, the certainty that Turkey would have to make some accommodation, 
      and reopen German trade and oil supplies from the Black Sea. 
      You will therefore see, Mr. President, the awful enfeeblement 
      of our war effort that would result merely from the sending out 
      by Japan of her battle-cruiser and her twelve eight inch gun 
      cruisers into the Eastern oceans, and still more from any serious 
      invasion threat against the two Australian democracies in the 
                        Southern Pacific.                   
 
                                                            
 
 
Some believe that Japan in her present mood would not hesitate 
      to court an attempt to wage war both against Great Britain and 
      the United States. Personally, I think the odds are definitely 
      against that, but no one can tell. Everything that you can do 
      to inspire the Japanese with fear of a double war may avert the 
      danger. If however they come in against us and we are alone, 
      the grave character of the consequences cannot easily be over-stated.