No. 230
DIVISION OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE
FROM: ADMIRALTY
T.0.R. - 0.N.I. 021310
Following is a summary of recent Joint Entellicence Sub
Committee's appreciation of Germany's intentions.
l. Germany is becoming short of oil and her air force has been
reduced to first line strength of approximately 4,000 operational
and 1,400 transport aircraft.
2. She has recently increased naval and air forces in the
Mediterranean. Considerable number of submarines and small
craft have arrived in this area and large stocks of oil have
been accumulated at Mediterranean ports.
3. We believe the supply increase intended chiefly for protec-
tion of Axis communication with North Africa to neutralize Malta,
and to insure against a successful British advance to the Tunis
frontier.
4. On Russian front the initiative still in Russian's hands and
German forces withdrawing under strong pressure. As yet, no
sign of present Russian offensive exhausting itself. Until it
does, it will be impossible for Germany to withdraw substantial
forces from Russia to rest and refit so as to form a striking
force for renewal of offensive on the Russian front or for
large scale operations in other theatres of war.
5. On the contrary, we know Flak defences in Ukraine are being
strengthened at the expense of Roumania and that other air units
including air force troops, recently withdrawal from Russian
front are being hurriedly returned there after minimum time spent
in rest and refit.
6, Owing to reduction in strength of German Air Force unlikely
that Germany will be able to make available sufficient air force
to contain Russians and at the same time undertake large scale
operations elsewhere. Further, this weakness will compel Germany
to limit her offensive to one major operation only where she
might hope to concentrate an air force sufficient to give her
local superiority. To achieve this she would have to reduce her
air force elsewhere to a minimum required for security.