The first thing to consider is how and where we might
 
become involved.
 
     The immediate war alternatives seem to be:
 
     (a) War with Japan in which we have no allies. This
 
might be precipitated by Japanese armed opposition should we
 
strongly reinforce our Asiatic Fleet or the Philippines
 
Garrison, should we start fortifying Guam, or should we impose
 
additional important economic sanctions; or it might be pre-
 
cipitated by ourselves in case of overt Japanese action against
 
us, or by further extension of Japanese hegemony.
 
     (b) War with Japan in which we have the British Empire, or
 
the British Empire and Netherlands East Indies, as allies.
 
This might be precipitated by one of the causes mentioned in (a),
 
by our movement of a naval reinforcement to Singapore, or by
 
Japanese attack on British or Netherlands territory.
 
     (c) War with Japan in which she is aided by Germany and
 
Italy, and in which we are or are not aided by allies. To the
 
causes of such a war, previously listed, might be added
 
augmented American material assistance to Great Britain, our
 
active military intervention in Britain's favor, or our active
 
resistance to German extension of military activities to the 
 
Western Hemisphere.
 
     (d) War with Germany and Italy in which Japan would not
 
be initially involved, and in which we would be allied with the
 
British. Such a war would be initiated by American decision to
 
 
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