I can only surmise as to the military, political, and
 
economic situation that would exist in the Atlantic should the
 
British Empire collapse. Since Latin-America has rich natural
 
resources, and is the only important area of the world not now
 
under the practical control of strong military pourers, we can
 
not dismiss the possibility that, sooner or later, victorious
 
Axis nations might move firmly in that direction. For some
 
years they might remain too weak to attack directly across the
 
sea; their effort more likely would first be devoted to
 
developing Latin American economic dependence, combined with
 
strongly reinforced internal political upheavals for the purpose 
 
of establishing friendly regimes in effective military control.
 
The immediacy of danger to us may depend upon the security of
 
the Axis military position in Eastern Europe and the Mediterra-
 
nean, the degree of our own military preoccupation in the
 
Pacific, and the disturbing influence of unsatisfied economic
 
needs of Latin-America.
 
     The present situation of the British Empire is not
 
encouraging. I believe it easily possible, lacking active
 
American military assistance, for that empire to lose this war
 
and eventually be disrupted.
 
     It is my opinion that the British are over-optimistic
 
as to their chances for ultimate success. It is not at all sure 
 
that the British Isles can hold out, and it may be that they do
 
not realize the danger that will exist should they lose in other
 
regions.
 
 
                               -4-